Dear Friend & Subscriber-

One of the most-asked questions about cannabis is when we will see a full-scale, national repeal of cannabis prohibition (and thus, legalization).

Sometimes, it’s investment-related (how long is the ‘long hold’ in cannabis?). Sometimes, it’s access-related (when will I be able to buy cannabis where I live?). Oftentimes, it’s timeline-related (when does cannabis go from ’newly legal’ to ‘fully legal’?). 

Based on some rough math and a review of history, it is my contention that it will take 15 years before we see all 50 states repeal prohibition.

Why 2036? 

It’s not arbitrary, and it honestly has nothing to do with political cycles and everything to do with the math when comparing cannabis to everyone’s favorite friendly and familiar vice, alcohol, the only drug that you’re assumed to have a problem with if you’re not consuming it).

It took 13 years for alcohol prohibition to be repealed, and an additional 21 years after that for all 50 states to repeal prohibition. 

By comparing those numbers to cannabis, I’ve arrived at 2036 as the likeliest of four legalization timelines (we’ll dive deeper into this later on).

As someone who loves the logic of math, a cannabis enthusiast of more than a decade, and a cannabis co-author actively engaged in discussions about the future of cannabis with those shaping it, this timeline accounts for the “room to grow” necessary for corporations to scale cannabis, as well as federal legalization to transition to state-level regulation in a manner similar to alcohol.

History repeats itself, and the regulation of vices seems to follow suit.

So, let’s take a brief dive into the recent history of alcohol and cannabis, throw in a dash of math, and use some logic to explain why a 15-year timeline makes sense. 

From Prohibition to Legalization: Alcohol

Most of us are familiar with alcohol prohibition, the roaring 20s, and the eventual legalization of America’s favorite intoxicating beverage.

As with cannabis, there was a buildup to prohibition that did not happen overnight. 

Nearly 100 years prior, the American Temperance Society was founded, and states like Maine would enact legislation to ban alcohol sales (eventually repealed five years later). Wars and economic crisis would table the issue until the late 1800s with Kansas amending their constitution to outlaw alcohol. 

The dominoes would continue to fall until 1920, when the 18th amendment created prohibition.

A predominantly dry country led to a flourishing black market (see: The Great Gatsby) for alcohol, including speakeasies, bootlegging, moonshining, and everything in between. But enforcement wasn’t consistent. And local, state, and national agencies weren’t in agreement on how best to approach the issue, making laws hard (at best) to enforce.

During prohibition, the illegal production of alcohol led to a rise in safety concerns as unregulated products.

This was causing a rise in related poisonings, crime, and obvious losses in potential tax revenue. The black market ruled. Illegal producers made the most money. And enforcement was futile at suppressing the demand and supply of liquor.

In 1933, the 18th Amendment was repealed on the basis of the potential tax revenue that alcohol could bring in.

By 1966, all states had eliminated prohibition. By 2013, home brew was legal in all 50 states (beer and wine only; no liquor). And, in the years since, we have seen “hobby” brewers trend toward craft brewers, and craft beer edge in to corporate beer’s market share. 

Today, 101 years since prohibition, Craft Beer accounts for 23-25% of the overall market. Home brew accounts for 1%.

In the past 5-10 years, we have seen a consolidation of craft beer under the umbrella of corporate alcohol. We have watched as consumers demanded more local and regional offerings, in more boutique batches. And 99% of beer drinkers don’t brew their own beer, even though they legally can, because craft products are readily available (even if that’s because they are distributed en masse by Big Alcohol.

Alcohol’s transition from prohibition to the current era aligns well with cannabis’ trajectory from prohibition, though we’ve still got quite a ways to go.

Cannabis: A Recent History

Cannabis has been used since 2727 B.C.E. (as far as we know; likely longer).

Cannabis prohibition started to gain roots in the early 1900’s, beginning with California’s Poison Act.

The act was intended to make non-medical use illegal, but ended up being enforced across the board, medical or not. State laws like this, along with plenty of racism and classism, eventually led to federal legislation.

The Federal Bureau of Narcotics was created in 1930, and the Marihuana Tax Act was passed in 1937, effectively criminalizing cannabis.

In the 1950s, laws became increasingly strict, only to relax in the 1960s and 1970s with some cities and states decriminalizing the drug. This was excellent news for the black market. But the government wasn’t finished.

In 1970, the Tax Act was stuck down as unconstitutional, and replaced with the Controlled Substances Act (still in effect today), naming cannabis as a Schedule 1 Narcotic with a high potential for abuse and no accepted medicinal value.

And yet, cities and states continued to decriminalize cannabis, reducing its enforcement priority to next to nil. This increasingly permissive social attitude towards the plant would eventually lead to medical use by many. As anecdotal evidence of the efficacy of medical cannabis continued to come out, states began taking action.

In 1996, California legalized cannabis for medical use even though the Supreme Court ruled that the DEA could still enforce the Controlled Substances Act.

Under medical cannabis, small “mom & pop” grows and brands began coming out from the “underground” and into the quasi-legal market. The earliest cannabis shops grew their own plants, processed them in house, and created their own products (edibles, extracts, topicals, etc.) in-house. Similar to a speakeasy, you had the option of whatever was on the shelf, the majority (if not all) of which was made at the same establishment.

Under medical cannabis laws, home production was protected and often encouraged. 

Because not every shop had what you might need for your diagnosis, and because not every patient had access to a shop because not every locale allowed for them, patients were encouraged and allowed to grow their own cannabis, and process as needed. To this day, medical laws in new states continually allow patients to maintain home grows (even in states that prohibit home cultivation) if they do not live within a certain distance of a licensed operator.

But even under medically-permissive laws, the nation remained “dry”.

Even now, cities in states with fully-legal cannabis remain vigilant in “protecting the children” by prohibiting shops from existing in their zip code(s). While states may legalize, cities and local jurisdictions may enact their own legislation. This is important, because it is what we can expect when federal legalization happens; states will continue to enforce and enact their own prohibition policies for years to come.

16 years after California legalized medical cannabis, Washington and Colorado legalized recreational, adult-use cannabis; for the first time since 1937, any legal adult could legally purchase weed.

Shortly after these landmark election victories, the Obama administration offered guidance that the feds would not interfere with state-legal operations so long as they remained compliant. This didn’t “open the flood gates,” but it did catalyze a trend towards cannabis activism nationwide. Not even a decade late, more than two thirds of the country has some form of legal cannabis.

From 2013 until now, we have watched a hybrid market exist, attempting to protect existing medical programs while enacting new, adult-use laws.

Unfortunately, as I have discussed before, recreational cannabis is the beginning of the end of medical cannabis. And, eventually, it won’t even be “recreational cannabis.” Simply, it’ll just be “cannabis.” 

As this hybrid model evolves, we are seeing the problems inherent to having two coexisting systems of legalization:

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